BROOKINGS, S.D. – South Dakotans can expect weather changes this January based on data from the new National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center 30-day outlook.
“The outlook shows January 2016 weather to be different from December in several ways including temperature and precipitation,” said Dennis Todey, South Dakota State Climatologist & SDSU Extension Climate Specialist.
Todey explained that the January 2016 outlook shifts the temperature probability slightly, with above average chances for warmer temperatures only in the northern third of the state. “The rest of the state is listed as equal chances for below or above average temperatures,” he said, noting that this is a slight shift from previous outlooks which had been very bullish on warmer than average temperatures overall for the whole state and region.
“The shift is likely caused by a couple changes in conditions,” Todey said.
With low winter sun angles and shorter days, Todey added that the current snow cover across the state will keep surfaces from warming as readily.
“Northern areas of the state and parts of North Dakota actually have lesser amounts of snow cover allowing them a better opportunity to melt out and warm up in time,” he said. “The deeper areas of snow cover will not likely melt off during the month.”
Todey said that areas throughout the state and region with lighter snow cover should have a chance of melting out if little additional snow falls.
Cold outbreak
Computer models, although mixed on the strength and length, are projecting a cold outbreak in the middle January, explained Laura Edwards, SDSU Extension Climate Field Specialist.
“Even in an El Nino winter, some cold outbreaks are not unexpected,” said Edwards. “This expected cold outbreak also contributes to the lower likelihood of warmer conditions for the month as a whole.”
Winter wheat benefits from snow cover
“The updated precipitation outlook is very El Nino-like,” Todey said. “The northern edge of the state is included in below average chances for precipitation. El Nino is still influencing our winter weather.”
He explained that wetter than average areas are confined largely from California across the southern U.S. “Overall this month does look quieter than December, with the pattern shifting away from the storm track experienced in December.”
He added that historically, January is the lowest precipitation time of the year for South Dakota.
“Snow cover is more than expected over much of the state at the start January due to record snows in December,” Edwards said.
She referenced the fact that areas west of the Missouri and in the southeast have more than a foot of snow on the ground, with at least a few inches of snow covering the rest of the state.
“The snow is having an impact on conditions in several ways,” she said. As mentioned, the snow cover is helping keep temperatures somewhat cooler.
While temperatures have not been extremely cold to this point in the season, Edwards explained that the snow cover in western, winter wheat growing counties, has been advantageous for winter wheat as it provides protection for the overwintering crop.
“The recent consistent sub-freezing temperatures have also eased some livestock issues,” she said. “Before the onset of colder temperatures in the latter part of December, many feedlot managers were reporting difficulties with muddy conditions.” Now most of the feedlots are solid.
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